Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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287 ACUS01 KWNS 201635 SWODY1 SPC AC 201633 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... The primary threat for severe thunderstorms today will be over parts of the central Plains, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. ...Central High Plains... A large upper trough will slowly deepen across the western United States today, with strengthening southwesterly mid/upper level flow spreading across the Plains states. A band of mid-level moisture and instability will result in scattered high-based thunderstorms across northern CO/southern WY by mid-afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other discrete supercell storms may form in vicinity of the DCVZ as southeasterly low-level winds and elevated terrain aid in initiation. These storms will track east-northeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, with the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes through the evening. By mid-evening, coverage of storms will increase over southwest NE as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with storms progressing across the central Plains overnight with a continued risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...IL/WI... A well-defined remnant MCV from overnight convection over KS is currently over northeast IA. A surface boundary extends eastward from the low across northern IL. Broken clouds and partial afternoon heating will aid in the development of thunderstorms near the MCV later today as it tracks across southern WI/northern IL. Any storm that can interact with the boundary would have the potential to become a supercell and pose a risk of a tornado or two. Otherwise, hail and gusty winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast FL... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across southeast FL. Ample low-level moisture, strong heating, cyclonic midlevel flow, and relatively steep lapse rates could result in a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/20/2024 $$