214
ACUS01 KWNS 301241
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size,
damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected
this afternoon into tonight from west into central Texas.  More
isolated severe storms will be possible today from the Red River
Valley into east Texas, and into southwest Texas.

...Southern Plains through tonight...
A complex scenario is unfolding this morning with multiple, small
thunderstorm clusters ongoing across southern KS/northwest OK,
northwest TX and the TX Panhandle.  The warm sector across
TX/southern OK has recovered during the past 24 hours, with
boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s to northwest TX and the
upper 70s along the TX coast.  The latter two clusters will likely
be the most influential today while moving east-southeastward along
the north edge of the richer moisture/buoyancy, with the potential
for occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large
hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter from north into east TX today.
Convective outflow is expected to spread southwestward in the wake
of these morning storms, which will help focus additional severe
storm development this afternoon/evening across the TX South Plains
and Big Country.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse
rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells
with initial storm development this afternoon in the ENH area.  The
southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential
to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a
couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of
somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual
outflow boundary.  Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS
is probable tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail
continuing well into the overnight hours into central/north TX.

...KS/CO/NE through tonight...
Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning
in KS cast doubt on any specifics regarding the severe threat north
of the ongoing TX storm clusters.  Residual low-level moisture and
surface heating in cloud breaks later today could result in
sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with
hail/wind.  However, vertical shear will also be relatively weak in
most areas along and south of the slow-moving front from CO to NE,
which combined with the effects of prior convection could tend to
limit the overall severe threat.  Will maintain much of the original
SLGT risk area into KS/CO, but confidence in the forecast is low.

..Thompson/Grams.. 05/30/2024

$$