Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
474 ACUS01 KWNS 171617 SWODY1 SPC AC 171615 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast states and portions of the northern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/17/2024 $$