Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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885 ACUS01 KWNS 222002 SWODY1 SPC AC 222000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. $$