120
ACUS01 KWNS 231621
SWODY1
SPC AC 231619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains,
Tennessee Valley, and Maine.  A concentration of severe winds --
some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central
Plains this evening into tonight.

...Northern Plains...
Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring
across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly
low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region.
Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon
as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and
associated mid-level speed max.  These initial storms will be
relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and
damaging winds.  A tornado or two is also possible.  As the evening
progresses,  model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will
grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of
damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA.

...Southern Plains...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours
have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of
low-clouds and more stable air.  This tends to limit the confidence
in where robust thunderstorms will form later today.  Two areas of
concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2)
central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries.  In both
areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will
favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado or two.  Considered adding an small ENH to western OK,
but there wasn`t sufficient confidence on where to place it.

...Maine...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending
from NH into Quebec.  Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front
across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today.  See
MCD #909 for further details.

...TN Valley...
Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central
KY.  Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of
thunderstorms this afternoon.  Forecast soundings show sufficient
westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk
of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024

$$