050
ACUS01 KWNS 282001
SWODY1
SPC AC 281959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain
possible over a small part of the upper Texas Coast into southwest
Louisiana for a few more hours. Another area of significant severe
weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and
evening.

...Texas...
A severe MCS producing locally significant damaging gusts and large
hail continues to move toward the upper TX Coast, and extends into
southwest LA as of 20Z. The very moist and unstable air mass ahead
of this activity will support damaging winds and periods of hail
before moving offshore later this afternoon. Activity may also build
southwestward toward the middle TX Coast.

For more information on this area see MCD 1049.

To the west, a large area of outflow has pushed across much of
central Texas, but sufficient PWAT remains to support
destabilization through the afternoon as heating occurs.

For more information across western TX, see MCDs 1046 1047 1048.

...NE NM into southeast CO and western KS...
The air mass continues to destabilize due to heating, with storms
beginning to form from Raton to Pueblo. Easterly surface winds below
weak westerlies will lengthen hodographs sufficiently to support
cells capable of large hail. Storms should generally move very
slowly south or east, producing locally severe gusts and large hail.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/

...Southeast TX/Western LA...
A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has
dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later
today.  The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and
southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable
environment.  Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and
bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail
until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore.

...West TX...
The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward
across TX.  A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface
dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in
rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon.  These storms will
be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable
of all severe hazards.  Activity will persist through much of the
evening and spread into west-central TX.

...WI/IL/IN...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave
trough over southeast MN.  A few of the storms may produce locally
gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to
remain marginal.

...Outer Banks of NC...
A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a
very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place.  Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a
risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms.

...ME...
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and
eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area.  Gusty winds
and hail will be possible in the strongest cells.

$$