424
ACUS01 KWNS 260118
SWODY1
SPC AC 260117

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across
parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A
few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail
will be possible.

...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR...
Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon
across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated
the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the
central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will
continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some
recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of
convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells
capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong
tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist.

Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO
into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into
the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally
destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale
growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very
strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat,
including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense
storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the
end of the period.

Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern
KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge
northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually
reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible
across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large
hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and
south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out
with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be
possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm
cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier
storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period.

...South FL...
Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a
couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a
moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail
and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later
tonight.

...Parts of MS/AL...
A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern
MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the
region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally
30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with
the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as
MLCINH increases.

...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts
of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment
characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the
onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging
gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening.

..Dean.. 05/26/2024

$$