582
ACUS01 KWNS 290119
SWODY1
SPC AC 290118

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain
possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas.

...Central/Southern High Plains into OK...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward
through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian
Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support
long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust
updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution
throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX
Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both
locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more
forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving.
This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing
risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible.

Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging
eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within
this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it
east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain
over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level
jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over
central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line.

A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains.
As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for
supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt
via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers.

...Rio Grande Valley...
A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick
County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in
recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains
favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air
mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and
marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through
the later this evening.

...Central Texas Early Wednesday...
There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across
portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively
enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support
occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts.

..Mosier.. 05/29/2024

$$