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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
739 ACUS02 KWNS 241745 SWODY2 SPC AC 241743 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 $$