Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
289 ACUS03 KWNS 270732 SWODY3 SPC AC 270731 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 $$