028
ACUS03 KWNS 230739
SWODY3
SPC AC 230738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on
Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong
tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks...

A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on
Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much
of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected.

An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over
the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will
increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast
along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a
warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly
low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over
the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast
NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The
warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight.
Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from
west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in
the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across
the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel
lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to
extreme destabilization.

By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline
and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit
uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected.
Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly
winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support
supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and
intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very
large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from
near the Red River into OK and eastern KS.

It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will
develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection
spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado
potential will accompany this activity.

...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia...

Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on
Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting
diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and
effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will
support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

$$