153
FXUS63 KEAX 262327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for severe storms has diminished with isolated to
  scattered storms possible this afternoon. Gusty winds, small
  hail and lightning will be main hazards.

- Quieter weather expected for Memorial Day through Wednesday,
  with seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The initial round of storms overnight has hindered the
convective environment to today`s activity as it`s been more
difficult to recover. Thus the threat for severe storms has
diminished as we moved from slight and enhanced risk in Central
Missouri down to marginal risk and even general thunderstorms
along the state line of Missouri and Iowa. This means that only
the isolated to scattered coverage possible for this afternoon
has diminished and expecting main hazard threat if any storms
develop to will be gusty winds, small hail and lighting. As for
the probability of precipitation has been lowered to 20 to 40%
with the best potentials in the far northwestern portions of
Missouri and northeastern Kansas and along the boundary to our
southern counties from Cooper to Miami and southward counties.
As of 130 pm radar reflectivity showed some isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving northeast
across northern Kansas. The surface low at 130 pm is located
near the junction of northwest OK, southwest MO, and southeast
KS with the boundary across central MO as seen in the visible
satellite imagery with the cu cloud cover. Redevelopment of
storms will primarily be along the boundary as radar
reflectivity return already see line extending from Ottawa to
Lawrence to Sedalia.

Additionally the flood watch was cancelled across Kansas and
central Missouri earlier this morning. However we will still
have to monitor certain location such as the 102 River near
Maryville and Rosendale and the Platte River at Agency which
show rise water level through Tuesday but should still remain
within action stages.

Quieter weather arrives on Memorial Day. A couple of mid/upper
level troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest,
pivoting toward the Great Lakes region through Tuesday, keeping
us under northwest flow aloft and expecting some weak cold
fronts through the region. This flow will temperatures near
seasonal normals along with reasonably comfortable humidity
levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s through Wednesday.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the
western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return
flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and
thunderstorms towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest flow remains
through the period, potentially becoming marginally gusty Monday
afternoon. Could see some cumulus develop on Monday, though will
be most prevalent across central Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...BT