Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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378 FXUS63 KEAX 011708 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers across central Missouri this morning should gradually push east leading to dry conditions across much of the region today. - Potential for storms Sunday night - Tuesday. Some storms may be strong producing gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Northern branch of the upper level jet positioned near the US/Canadian border continue to be the main branch of the upper level jet through the forecast period. Both the mid and upper level flow remains relatively weak, allowing the low pressure system that has plagued the region the last few days to continue to linger. This system, currently across central Missouri as of 08Z, is expected to gradually lift north and east. Wrap around precipitation could lead to light shower activity through the morning hours across central Missouri. This precipitation and the associated cloud cover is expected to gradually shift east. As the northerly flow develops on the backside of this system, expect drier air to gradually filter into the region leading to incremental clearing throughout the day. As the near surface ridge shifts east of the area, southerly flow is expected to develop as zonal flow across the Rockies leads to lee side troughing across the western High Plains. A couple of complexes of storms may try to develop tonight, one along the 925 warm front across southern South Dakota and a second across eastern Colorado into western Kansas as an area of low pressure develops. If the storms develop to the north into a complex, they will likely propagate southward on the east side of the thermal ridge across the western Plains potentially leading to morning storms building south from eastern Nebraska/western Iowa into northeast Kansas/northern Missouri. As the thermal ridge shifts east, could see additional elevated storms develop feeding off a thin north/south ribbon of 500- 1000 J/kg of CAPE. With that said, shear remains weak in the atmosphere, so expect storms to largely remain subsevere and fall apart as they work east into a more stable atmosphere. Storms are expected to redevelop across the western high plains Sunday afternoon along a boundary/moisture gradient as weak short waves move through in zonal flow. These storms could potentially build into another MCS, moving across the plains and possibly building into the region Sunday night. As these storms build east, they will have plenty of instability to feed off of (1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE) and will be building into a 30-40 knot low level jet across the region. While mid level flow remains relative weak with upper level ridge across the central US, the stronger low level winds may be enough to result in some gusty winds with some of the stronger storms. SPC has outlooked eastern Kansas into western Missouri in a marginal risk mainly for the potential for severe wind gusts. Additional storms are possible Monday into Tuesday within airmass of building heat and humidity ahead of a cold front sliding south through the region. Thereafter, large upper ridge develops across the western US with a rex block pattern setting up leading to a stagnant pattern Wednesday into next weekend. Uncertainty in how strong the upper ridge remains, and with the region positioned on the front edge of the ridge, we may not remain completely dry, but looks to be drier than the last several weeks have been. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 There is currently a mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions over the terminals as a low pressure system to the east is filtering in cloud coverage. Ceilings are expected to raise to VFR thresholds starting around 19Z. Additional cloud coverage is expected to move over the terminals around 07Z Sunday morning, with the ceiling heights to be determined. Winds will be out of the northwest around 5-10 knots before shifting to more south-southwesterly flow around 04-05Z Saturday night. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Hayes