715
FXUS63 KEAX 261735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for severe storms has diminished with isolated to
  scattered strong storms possible this afternoon. Gusty winds,
  small hail and lightning will be main hazards.

- Quieter weather expected for Memorial Day through Wednesday,
  with seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the
region. The initial round of storms from late Saturday evening
really hindered the convective environment, which has tempered
the severity of the successive rounds early this morning. That
being said, one severe warned storm with marginally severe hail
is ongoing along I-70 near Sweet Springs. Convection is still
occurring as far was as Alma to Wichita, KS as the front remains
over central Kansas. All this activity will continue to move
eastward through the next several hours, clearing east of the KC
Metro by around 7 AM, and completely through the remainder of
the county warning area by around 9 AM. Hydro concerns have also
been reduced, but for now have elected to hold onto the flood
watch.

Additional redevelopment of severe storms is possible by mid to
late afternoon toward central Missouri along the cold front.
Looks like if any of our area is impacted it would be the
Boonville/Sedalia area with storms quickly exiting eastward into
WFO St. Louis` area. A few scattered storms will be possible
further west behind the cold front by late afternoon into early
evening, with marginally severe hail being the primary threat.
Outside of the storm chances, high temperatures should range
from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to the lower 80s elsewhere.

Quieter weather arrives by Monday. A couple of mid/upper level
troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest,
pivoting toward the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday,
keeping us under northwest flow aloft sending a couple of weak
back door cold fronts through the region. This will help keep
temperatures near seasonal normals as well as keep humidity
levels relatively comfortable with dewpoints in the low to mid
50s through Wednesday.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the
western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return
flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will persist across the forecast period at all
terminals with westerly to northwesterly winds around 10 knots.
There is a slight chance for isolated showers and storms (15-
20%) from KMCI and southward this afternoon, but chances are too
low to even mention. There is a chance of thunderstorms for
KSTJ between 22z and 01z but only mentioned VCTS. The potential
for severe thunderstorms has diminished across the entire area.
Expect more quiet and seasonal weather for the terminals for
Memorial day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...MAK