307
FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances gradually increase today mainly focused across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

- Additional rain chances on Friday, some of which may be locally
heavy.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

06Z upper level analysis depicts upper level trough across the
northeastern US and northern Rockies with upper level ridge
sandwiched in-between the two systems.  The northern branch of the
upper jet is expected to help guide the upper trough into the Upper
Midwest into southern Canada over the next few days. The retreating
ridge building into the Ohio Valley will result in southeasterly
winds developing in the near surface layer ahead of the approaching
trough.  With flow originating from the Gulf of Mexico, will see
moisture build into the region. Precipitable water values this
morning near one inch are expected to climb towards 1.3-1.5" by 00Z
this evening, close to the 90th percentile for this time of year.

As low level moisture and convergence increases could see some
showers/weak thunderstorms develop in the afternoon hours and
evening hours.  Given the deep warm cloud layers, high precipitable
water and tall thin CAPE profiles, have the potential for locally
heavy rain mainly focused across the western edge of the CWA where
low level warm air advection/theta-e advection leads to weak
instability. Precipitation will struggle to advance east of highway
65 where stable atmosphere remains through the evening hours.

Increasing isentropic lift on Friday on the 300-305K surfaces will
lead to additional rainfall across the region on Friday.  Relatively
weak winds could lead to slow storm motions in addition to all the
heavy rain parameters above leading to the potential of locally
heavy rainfall.  Ensembles are generally focusing on 0.5-1" amounts
across the region, which is under one hour flash flood guidance so
will not issue a headline right now; however, the ingredients are
there future shifts may need to consider a flash flood watch for
southern portions of the forecast area where flooding parameters are
most consistent.

There are questions as to whether the cold front associated with the
filling upper trough is able to make it far enough south this
weekend. If we are able to get the front through, drier less humid
conditions are expected.  However, flow turns southerly by the end
of the weekend into next week, drawing additional heat and humidity
back into the region as a series of short waves move through the
region.  There is little model agreement on the various waves, and
for now have broadbrushed pops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions through 00Z Friday with easterly winds
transitioning to southeast. Could see spotty
showers/thunderstorms towards 00Z Friday, but coverage is not
expected to be widespread enough to include mention in 06Z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT