795
FXUS63 KEAX 222017
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
317 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild conditions with temperatures in the mid 70s today.

- Another system of strong to severe storms is expected to move
through the region late Thursday into Friday. The most likely hazard
is damaging winds; however, large hail and isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

- More chances for thunderstorms arrive over the weekend. Once
again, strong to severe storms are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

After another active evening yesterday, a quiet day is expected
today. Northwest flow on the backside of the low and midlevel
ridging has brought generally calmer weather to the area. A subtle
shortwave passed through this morning bringing some sprinkles and
showers to the region. Zonal flow aloft and clearer skies today keep
highs in the mid 70s. Winds turn out of the south overnight
advecting some warmer air northward pushing highs Thursday into the
80s.

Unfortunately, our break from the active weather is short lived as
another wave of showers and thunderstorms looks to enter the region
Thursday. Fortunately, most of the daytime hours look dry sans a
couple of isolated showers across the southern portion of the
coverage area. A leeward cyclone is anticipated to develop across
the northern Rockies. Strong to severe storms are expected to form
across southern SD and NE assembling into a line during the evening
hours. This complex of storms works its way southeast into the area
overnight. There has been consensus across model guidance with the
time of arrival of these storms being after midnight Friday
continuing through the region after sunrise Friday morning. Where
models diverge is the expected storm mode with some suggesting a
compact linear system versus a more broad scale MCS. Long range,
higher resolution CAMs have been suggesting the more QLCS
orientation versus the broader scale MCS proposed by the coarser
deterministic models. Short term high res models will help build
confidence once they come into range overnight tonight into tomorrow
morning. Regardless, both presentations bring chances for strong to
severe storms overnight Thursday into Friday. All severe hazards are
possible with damaging winds being the most likely hazards. Hail and
tornadoes are also possible with the tornado threat potentially
being higher should the storms maintain more QLCS characteristics.
Heavy rainfall is also likely; however, storm motions do look fast
enough that flash flooding remains limited; however, additional
rainfall into local basins may raise creeks and rivers slightly.

A stout ridge builds across the central CONUS Friday evening lasting
into Saturday bringing another break in the rain for the morning
into the early afternoon. However, the transient weather pattern
continues with a LLJ quickly advecting warm air and moisture
across the central Plains. A strong shortwave trough swiftly
ejects an area of positive vorticity advection into the central
Plains resulting in a rapidly developing cyclone across eastern
CO Saturday afternoon and evening. This area of lift quickly
enters the conveyor of warm air and moisture across central KS
initiating showers and thunderstorms. Once again, convective
parameters show a favorable environment for severe weather with
all hazards possible. Several uncertainties remain with more
minute details; however, the synoptic conceptual model, echoed
by the SPC Day 4, suggests the potential for strong to severe
storms. Depending on the speed of the cyclone, strong to severe
storm chances may linger through Sunday for areas east of US-65.

The Memorial Day holiday looks mostly dry, some guidance points at
another decaying MCS moving into the region overnight into Tuesday,
but uncertainty remains high at this time. The extended forecast
shows strong NW flow and low level high pressure settling things
down early next week. Temperatures look to remain seasonal as mid
level southerly flow and daytime heating compete against cooler
upper level NW flow. The pattern continues to remain active albeit
the frequency of storms systems does look to decrease as June
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. A few clouds could
build in during the afternoon hours followed by additional
clearing overnight. Winds will be light and predominantly out of
the west-northwest during the early evening hours before
becoming southeasterly after 01Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Hayes