Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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350 FXUS63 KEAX 281726 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1226 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather conditions and seasonal temperatures expected today through Wednesday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A quiet morning has graced the area with clear skies and temperatures near normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s. The main weather focus today will be over northeast Missouri this afternoon as a stout embedded shortwave trough dives southeast from eastern Iowa into central Illinois. A couple scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will potentially develop over northeast Missouri, albeit minimal chance for impactful weather today. Otherwise with low relative humidity, near normal temperatures, a light breeze, and abundant sunshine, spectacular weather looks to be enjoyed today - with an encore on Wednesday. Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and generally remain through the end of the forecast period. Surface high pressure shifts slightly east as the upper ridge axis cuts through the CWA. Moisture advection commences during the day, with modest instability returning by Thursday evening. While the approaching upper trough will largely remain well to our northwest and eventually north as it hugs eastward along the Canadian border through the weekend, relatively broad/weak west to southwest flow with several embedded shortwave troughs is projected to reside across the Central Plains. Initial weak isentropic ascent in combination with mid/upper ascent from an approaching perturbation should yield precipitation chances on Thursday. An increasingly moist environment with the aforementioned embedded waves should continue periodic shower and thunderstorm chances Friday into Monday. Overall confidence with respect to the details remains low as the spread of precipitation amounts is fairly large. That said, current model suites suggest two primary windows of the bulk of precipitation; the first being Thursday into early Friday and the second late Sunday into Monday. With wet grounds, some risk for excessive rainfall and subsequent river flooding by Friday with the initial round of convection. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mostly clear skies are expected over the terminals in the early afternoon hours with cumulus cloud decks building in throughout. Winds will be light and out of the northwest at around 05-07 knots during the late afternoon and evening hours before shifting northeasterly overnight. Latest model guidance has westerly broken to overcast cloud coverage moving over the terminals around 04-05Z, but cloud ceilings are anticipated to remain above VFR thresholds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blair AVIATION...Hayes