357
FXUS63 KEAX 312047
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to expand east
  this evening across southern and central Missouri, with more scattered
  activity farther north.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday night. Additional heavy rain are possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Looking at the big picture, satellite imagery this afternoon shows a
ridge axis off to our east with a big trough across Canada dipping
into the Northern Plains. This would have left Kansas and Missouri
with a locally zonal flow across the Plains States if a large MCV
had not developed overnight.

The forecast hasn`t changed much in the past 12 hours. The MCV, that
overnight convection develped to our west, is still slowly spinning
its way east along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This has left eastern
Kansas and western Missouri with cloudy skies and scattered showers
through the day thus far thanks to the feed of moisture from the
Gulf. Model output, and simple persistance, indicates that the MCV
will continue east overnight with widespread showers and maybe some
embedded thunderstorm activity across southern, central, and
northeast Missouri overnight. Additional rainfall totals might bring
some minor flooding, but that is not really expected at this time as
totals will likely be less than half and inch.

Saturday...should be dry after the MCV moves far enough east
tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit for
the start of the weekend with highs both Saturday and Sunday around
80.

Sunday into next work week...will see the arrival of our next chance
of rain as a shortwave moves through what will be a zonal flow
across much of the Nation. Expect the chance for rain to return
Sunday and persist through the start of the work week, with
rain possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Otherwise, even
with the expected rain, and cloud cover that comes with it,
currently we expect to see temperatures ranging through the 80s.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions with scattered showers lingering through the first
few hours of the TAF period. Overcast skies continue through the
afternoon hours into the overnight before IFR ceilings are expected
over the terminals Saturday morning. Once the IFR ceilings arrive,
they are expected to persist into the late morning hours before
giving way MVFR ceilings around 15Z. Winds will be out of the
southeast around 5-7 knots Friday afternoon with occasional wind
gusts expected throughout. A northwesterly shift in the winds are
expected early Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hayes