Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
131 FXUS66 KEKA 291211 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 511 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will kick off this week with the hottest inland valleys reaching the upper 90s late this week. A regular cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore flow will persist for the coast. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building in today and will continue to do so through Friday. This will bring hot temperatures back to the interior with NBM even showing a 25% chance of 95 degree highs in the very hottest valleys in Trinity County on Friday. Combined with dry air behind the trough, such conditions will continue to dry interior fuels through the weekend. Building high pressure will also support a usual cycle of nighttime marine stratus with gusty north winds pushing on shore and helping to mix out clouds each afternoon. Onshore winds will mostly likely be strongest this afternoon with gusts upwards of around 35-40 mph around the coastal headlands in Del Norte and Northern Humboldt. Winds on other parts of the coast are forecasted to be between 20-30 mph. This flow will flip throughout the night and be more offshore from the northeast on Thursday morning before gusting onshore again in the afternoon. Cluster ensemble members show another series of troughs digging across the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend through early next week. Model ensembles are in high general agreement of a relatively weak trough, or shortwave ripple, sneaking over the area. There is NBM which would bring cooler and more moist weather, especially to the coast. NBM is even showing probabilities of wetting rain (>0.1") at a 75% along the Del Norte and at 40-65% in northern Humboldt Coast, as well as 15-40% in northern Trinity Co. for Monday afternoon. The very highest end models show light rain of up to 0.3 inches, yet these are the most extreme cases as of right now. A most likely scenario will come into better focus as models continue to evolve late this week. DS/JHW && .AVIATION....The upper level trough has moved through and high pressure is starting to build into the area. This is starting to increase winds across the area and a breezy afternoon is expected. Some stratus is in the valleys of Humboldt county, but KACV has cleared out. It is possible they will still see a few hours of MFR ceilings, but this is looking less likely. The northwest winds are expected to be strong this across the whole area this afternoon. CEC is expected to see gusts close to 40 KT. Tonight winds will be slow to diminish, but will eventually. Skies are expected to remain mainly clear tonight. MKK && .MARINE...The upper level trough has moved through and high pressure is starting to build into the area. This is starting to increase winds across the area and a breezy afternoon is expected. Winds are increasing first south of Cape Mendocino and then spreading north tonight. Models are in good agreement on gale force winds in the outer waters and southern inner waters. It looks like conditions will be lighter in the northern inner waters, but still breezy. These winds are expected to remain strong on Thursday. Friday the winds push a bit farther off the coast, but remain near gale or gale in the outer zones. For the weekend a trough moving through is expected to diminish the winds, especially north of Cape Mendocino. The seas will mainly be steep wind driven waves through Friday. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT tonight for PZZ470. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png