115
AXPZ20 KNHC 230301
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N86W to a 1010 mb low
pressure near 12N110W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 17N and E of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 20N and
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate
N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. Locally
fresh winds are likely occurring near Punta Eugenia. Meanwhile,
NW swell is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia,
beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the waters around Guadalupe
Island. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, including
the Gulf of California, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are
2 to 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf with seas to 2 ft across
the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6 ft along the southern
Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional
agricultural fires has spread medium haze across the Oaxaca
offshore waters near the coast and light haze across the rest of
the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California
offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside
below 8 ft by Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase
to moderate to briefly fresh tonight through Sat night as low
pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley.
Light to medium haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over
Mexico could reduce visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters
through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the entire
Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to
converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon
trough. Moderate SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light
and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft
primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far
south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along
the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce
visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia
through Fri. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
south of 10N through Mon night, with light to gentle breezes
north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 12N110W.
Fresh SW winds near the low are converging into the monsoon
trough between 106W and 110W. Combined seas in this area are
peaking to 7 ft. The convergent SW winds are also supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to 200 nm of the
low, from 09N to 15N between 105W and 111W.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered
near 38N143W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh N to
NE winds north of the ITCZ along 05N and west of 110W.
Scatterometer data indicated a small area of strong winds from
10N to 14N and W of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is evident
north of 28N between 120W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft
from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to
fresh SE winds are noted W of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by
Thu. Winds and seas will subside overnight as a result along
with showers and thunderstorm activity weakening along the
monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through
Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly,
including the large NW to N swell west of Baja California. This
will continue through early next week before the high pressure
strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder
of the area.

$$
ERA