925
AXPZ20 KNHC 252116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 10N103W to 07N121W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N121W to 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. A cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the monsoon
trough covering the waters from 05N to 10N between 102W and
106W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 95W and 106W, from 05N to 08N
between 120W and 130W, and within about 60 nm N of the ITCZ W of
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW
to N winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with a component of NW swell. Light
to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California, with seas of
1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh
NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the Baja
California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro through
mid-week. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are
expected in the Gulf of California through Mon, particularly
across the central part of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions
may persist off Chiapas and Oaxaca, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico.
Looking ahead, seas conditions are expected to deteriorate N of
Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches
the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with axis along
roughly 10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW south of it. Combined
seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos
Islands. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are
developing along and near the monsoon trough. Medium concentration
of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ and W of
130W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough between 110W and 130W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft based
on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S
of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region.

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area while weakening some through
mid-week. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area
through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, a small and
weak disturbance may develop along the monsoon trough or ITCZ
between 120W and 125W by mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong
winds and locally rough seas. Tropical cyclone formation is not
expected during the next 7 days.

$$
GR