850
AXPZ20 KNHC 201546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Panama near 08N82W to
13N103W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond
04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the
Gulf of Panama and surrounding waters from 02N to 09N between 77W
and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 100W and 111W and from 05N to 10N between 117W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific extends a broad ridge
south and southeastward to near 20N113W. This ridge is supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle
to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and the Revillagigedo
Islands. Locally strong winds are noted between Punta Eugenia and
Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San
Lazaro, and 6 to 8 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell south of Cabo
San Lazaro. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light
to gentle winds prevail, with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of
the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW
swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.
Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread across the
offshore waters from the southern Gulf of California to Central
America, producing hazy skies. Moderate smoke concentrations are
across the waters from Michoacan to Guerrero, and across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, where visibilities are likely reduced to 5
nm.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the
week. The pressure gradient between this and lower pressures over
Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds
W of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will pulse to strong
speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight. New NW swell will continue
moving across the Baja California offshore waters through Wed.
Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight
through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light to
moderate concentrations of smoke, due to agricultural fires, is
expected to maintain hazy skies and may reduce visibility over
portions of southern Mexico through Tue. Tropical cyclone
formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous strong convection is impacting the Colombia and Panama
offshore waters N of 04N between 77W and 86W, including the Gulf
of Panama. These storms are bringing frequent lightning strikes
and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise caution
in this area.

South of 08N, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted,
including the South American offshore waters. North of 08N,
moderate to locally fresh winds are pulsing in the Gulf of
Papagayo but light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 7
to 8 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters
due to long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft
across the rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural
fires across the region has spread from Mexico southeastward to
as far as northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep
impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For
waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to locally fresh
through the rest of the week. North of 07N, light to gentle winds
will prevail. Long period SW swell will continue to bring seas
of 6 to 8 ft in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters
through Tue night. Seas will build to 5 to 7 ft elsewhere
through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb, located N of the forecast
area near 40N140W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N
and W of 1110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to
E trade winds from 07N to 31N and W of 115W. Seas are in the 7
to 9 ft range within these winds. Elsewhere south through
southeast of the ridge to 07N, gentle to moderate winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and SW swell prevail W of 110W. South
of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 9
ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through
the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of
the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. New cross equatorial SW swell
will continue to combine with northerly swell to dominate area
waters through Wed before subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across
the trade wind zone will begin to slowly subside by Wed, and
subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
AReinhart