754
AXPZ20 KNHC 232300
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 14N103W to 07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W and 93W. Scattered moderate
conveciton is noted from 05N to 09N between 111W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to gentle to
moderate N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters.
NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California
offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate SW winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the
entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with seas
to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico
offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist with moderate
winds along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coastline. Seas range 4 to 6
ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in NW and SW swell.
Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread light haze
across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern
Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This
could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will begin to retreat through
the weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja
California offshore waters through Mon night. Winds could pulse
to strong near Punta Eugenia at night through the weekend. Winds
in the Gulf of California will prevail moderate to fresh through
Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the Colorado
River Valley. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires
over Mexico could reduce visibilities over most of the Mexico
offshore waters through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to
impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia,
N of 02N and E of 91W. This is due in part to converging SW
winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. Some
storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
rough seas.

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N,
with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5
to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as
far south as Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the
coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia
through Sat night. For waters south of 08N, winds will be
moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
will persist across the Central and South American offshore
waters from Fri night through early next week S of 08N, with
light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light haze from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough
near 13N112W. Convection around the low is beginning to diminish,
with some showers noted within 200 nm NE of the low. Combined
seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered
near 37N147W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north
of the ITCZ along 07N to 20N and west of 110W. Combined seas are
7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. N of 20N, winds are light
to gentle with seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate to
fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island
tonight. Convection will continue to subside as a result. Elsewhere,
the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing winds and
combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue through
early next week before the high pressure strengthens once again.
Little change is noted over the remainder of the area.

$$
AReinhart