064
AXPZ20 KNHC 240851
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 13N111W to 08N118W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 15N and E of 92W, and from 07N
to 12N between 96W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 15N and
west of 107W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressure over central Mexico is supporting moderate to
fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. NW
swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California
offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted
over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft
at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, with
seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the
Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist with
moderate winds along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coastline. Seas
range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in NW
and SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread
light haze across areas from the southern Gulf of California and
southern Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region.
This could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will begin to retreat through the
weekend as the high pressure NW of the area weakens. Moderate to
fresh NW to N winds will continue over the Baja California
offshore waters through Mon night. Winds in the northern Gulf of
California will pulse to strong on Fri night as low pressure
temporarily deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Winds will
prevail moderate to fresh through the weekend over the remainder
of the Gulf. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires
over Mexico could reduce visibilities over most of the Mexico
offshore waters through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the southern
Central America offshore waters and Colombia, N of 05N and E of
92W. This is due in part to converging SW winds farther offshore
associated with the monsoon trough. Some storms could produce
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas.

Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N, with light
and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft
primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far
south as Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected along the coast
with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce visibilities at
times.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia
through Sat night. For waters south of 09N, winds will be
moderate to fresh today. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will
persist across the Central and South American offshore waters
from tonight through early next week S of 09N, with light to
gentle breezes north of 09N. Light haze from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over
portions of the Central America offshore waters through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough
near 13N111W. No significant convection is noted within the low.
Combined seas in this area are peaking to 6 ft.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1035 mb high pressure centered
near 37N150W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north
of the ITCZ along 08N to 18N and west of 120W. Combined seas are
7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. N of 18N, winds are
gentle to moderate with seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ,
moderate SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to moderate
breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island
today. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken today, allowing
winds and combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue
through early next week before the high pressure strengthens once
again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area.

$$
ERA