064
AXPZ20 KNHC 271512
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W to 12N100W to 1009
mb low pressure near 10N115W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from
08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident N of 02N and E of 83W to the coast of
Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama where a cluster of
moderate to strong convection is noted. Similar convective
activity can be found from 05N to 10N between 94W and 105W, and
from 07N to 12N between 105W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist off Baja California Norte
between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over
central Mexico. The most recent altimeter satellite pass
indicated 4 to 6 ft combined seas off Baja California. Light to
gentle breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of
the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will continue
to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off
Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid-week.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail
across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, expect
building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell beyond 90
nm off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with combined
seas reaching 8 to 9 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds persist across the region. Seas are 3
to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
east of 83W off Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds
are expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain
in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses
of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Light haze from
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. Under the
influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow is noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where
moderate to fresh winds are blowing. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft
dominate most of the forecast area based on altimeter data.

A 1009 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N115W
generating some convective activity. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are on the SE quadrant of the low center. S of the monsoon
trough, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail.

For the forecast, ridging will remain in place north of 10N and
west of 110W through the next several days. By mid-week, this
system will strengthen some north of the area, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds across the trade wind zone, with seas
building to 8 ft mainly west of 130W.

$$
GR