Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
239 AXPZ20 KNHC 261526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N99W to a 1008 mb low pressure situated near 10N115W to 06N128W. The ITCZ continues from 06N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the low center from 06N to 10N between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 93W and 110W, and from 05N to 09N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The most recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed the presence of fresh winds along the coast of Baja California Norte, between broad ridging to the west and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with a component of NW swell. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro through mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, seas conditions are expected to deteriorate N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW south of it. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are developing along and near the monsoon trough. Light concentration of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ and W of 130W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough between 110W and 130W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area while weakening some through mid-week. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area through the early part of the week. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ GR