Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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071 FXUS64 KEPZ 212335 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 535 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Hot, dry and breezy to windy conditions will continue across the Borderland through the weekend. The windiest days look to be Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the next week with no chance for rain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Fairly persistent pattern across the CWA through the weekend with a WSW flow continuing with a couple disturbances quickly moving through. This will keep breezy to occasionally windy conditions going for the region with temperatures within a few degrees of normal. Winds will be in the 10-20 mph range each day except Thursday and Saturday when a ripple in the flow increases them to 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Winds aloft aren`t much stronger than H85 those two days, so do not see any wind highlights being necessary, but fire weather could be a concern. Some minor differences in the models show up going into early next week. Previous run of the EC had dryline pushing through area Mon/Tue while the GFS and most of it`s ensembles kept it further east. With some weak ridging moving into the area and upper low associated with the high pushing onto the plains off into the Great Lakes, feel like the dryline will have a tough time making it very far and if it does, it will likely be very shallow and not have much impact on our weather. Kept warm temperatures going, in fact, even warming them up into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the period. Westerly winds are expected with speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts of up to 20-25 kts until 2z today. Winds will pick up again starting at 18z. Skies will be clear with a few clouds possible (FEW250). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Little change in the weather pattern will keep it hot and dry each day with breezy to windy conditions. The windiest days will be Thursday and Saturday. Thursday`s winds look marginal for Red Flag, but possibly an SPS to highlight the near critical conditions as RH`s fall into the 3-8% range. Saturday looks windier than Thursday with RH`s continuing to mainly be in the single digits, so this could be the day with the greatest chance of meeting critical conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 90 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 90 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 93 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 89 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 80 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 77 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 77 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 88 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 81 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 84 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 86 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 89 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 89 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira/Ribail