704
FXUS64 KEPZ 012000
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Hot and dry conditions expected through much of the week. The
hottest days of the year are coming Wednesday through Friday with
a high temperature above 105 degrees around El Paso. Isolated
thunderstorms could return as we go into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Models coming into pretty good agreement for much of the period.
We start out with the dryline over eastern CWA and expect it to
push back to about the area it made it to this morning around the
Rio Grande. This push should not be as long lived as increasing
WSW flow aloft pushes it east of area by 18Z. Temperatures Sunday
will be close to or maybe a couple degrees cooler than today.
Westerly winds will be on the increase during the day with
10-20mph speeds expected by mid afternoon. Little change for
Monday with westerly flow continuing, temperatures again fluctuate
very little, but could see a bounce back of a degree or two.

For Tuesday through Friday, GFS has come around much closer to
what the EC has been showing for days as well as ensemble mean.
This solution has a cutoff low developing near Northern Baja and a
strong ridge building right over the Borderland. Prior runs of the
GFS kept lifting this upper low through the Four Corners around
Thu with fairly widespread precip chances. New GFS/Ensemble mean
and EC keep low along the coast through Friday with little chance
for precip Thu. Weakness developing in the ridge later in the week
may allow some moisture to push in from the east and bring a
slight chance for storms Friday afternoon and evening. Low level
moisture will not be impressive, so the biggest threat from these
storms would likely be gusty outflow winds.

The main concern for the forecast period will be Wed-Fri with the
ridge in place and temperatures warming quickly. Strong agreement
among models that Thursday will be the hottest day. NBM temps have
increased some over the last couple of days and now look more
reasonable with a high around 107 for KELP Thu, 90th percentile
Thu has 109. All lowland locations look to be 100+ Thursday.
Wednesday and Friday will also be very hot but just 2-3 degrees
cooler than Thu. Will need to look at possible Heat Advisories for
this period, especially around El Paso Metro area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

P6SM SKC for areas mainly along and west of the Rio Grande. To the
east, SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-250 as thunderstorm initiation is
expected shortly after 18Z over the San Andres and Sacramento
Mountains then isolated to scattered coverage as storms head east.
Winds will be west to southwest 5-15KTS for areas along and west
of the Continental Divide but will be shifting around from
southwest to east as the dryline moves east to around the
Culberson Co line by 00Z then shifts back toward the Rio Grande by
06Z. By the end of the period, all areas should be back to the
west-southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the norm through most of the
period. A few mountain storms are possible going into Thursday.
High temperatures will be near 100 for the lowlands to start the
period, but by Thursday some areas could see highs above 105
degrees. Minimum RH`s in the single digits each day through
Tuesday, then going into Wed and Thu the Sacs will work into the
lower to mid teens. Winds will start out low end breezy Sunday and
Monday, but as upper ridge builds, winds will decrease for
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  93  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               61  97  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  95  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  72  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    61  95  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   56  95  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  98  57  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60 100  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  98  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  95  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  95  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    56  97  56  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  94  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  52  85  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                51  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  82  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  52  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                59  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  94  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  86  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  89  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    54  92  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               56  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  93  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  93  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  92  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz