817
FXUS64 KEPZ 272000
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming week.
The first 100 degree temperature at the El Paso Airport is likely
to occur this week. Very dry conditions and winds of 10 to 20 mph will
keep the threat for fires high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Generally hot and dry conditions through the upcoming week. The
period starts out with upper ridge just east of the CWA followed
by a more zonal flow later in the week as a disturbance moves
through, then the ridge rebuilds stronger. Tomorrow will be close
to the first 100 degree temperature for KELP and along the lower
Rio Grande Valley. Looks like just a degree or 2 of cooling Wed
and again Thu. Winds each day will pick up to 10-20 mph. Lows
generally in the 50s and 60s with some 40s in the valley locations
of the Gila with very dry air remaining in place.

Going into the weekend, ridge rebuilds over the Rockies and pushes
just off to the east. There is some model differences as we get
into late Sat into Mon as the operational GFS is digging a fairly
strong trough into the central Rockies which brings some slightly
cooler air into the area with just a day or 2 of around 100
degrees possible. The EC just brings this feature as a quick
moving disturbance across the Northern Plains. GFS Ensemble mean
is more in line with the last few runs of the EC which will keep
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 104. NBM through this
period seems a couple degrees too cool and raised most areas
around 2 degrees. NBM also had some 15-20 Pops over the far east
later in the week, but the pattern doesn`t seem to fit allowing a
deep moisture push this far west so tapered down so they were not
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. West to southwest winds will pick
up to 10-15G25KTS this afternoon before decreasing to AOB 10KTS
after 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue with high temperatures in the
90s for the lowlands with a few 100 degree temps possible from
Tue and again over the weekend. RH`s each afternoon will be
falling into the single digits for much of the CWA, only area that
may get a few RH`s in the teens would be the eastern Sacs when the
dryline flirts with that area later in the week. Winds each
afternoon will be in the 10-20 mph range, so near critical fire
weather conditions are expected. Vent rates of excellent will be
widespread through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66 100  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  95  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               58  97  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  96  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  72  46  71 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    56  95  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              59  86  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  96  53  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                52  94  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  99  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  99  55  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             57 102  58 100 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               57  92  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61 100  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  97  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           65  97  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  96  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  98  54  96 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 58  98  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  95  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  84  50  82 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                47  86  48  84 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 44  84  45  82 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  45  87  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  93  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  95  52  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             35  87  36  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   49  90  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  91  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               40  89  41  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  95  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  95  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  95  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               55  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz