822
FXUS64 KEPZ 201750
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1150 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the theme through the
week. The combination of this during the month of May will promote
elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy
afternoon winds and warm temperatures through the week.

For today, deep southwest flow will remain overhead with the
continuation of breezy winds. Fairly decent lee-side surface low
development will occur over east-central NM and western TX
Panhandle during the afternoon hours. This will promote sufficient
surface troughing across NM with tightening pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This, in combination with deep
afternoon mixing will lead to breezy winds this afternoon. Winds
will be W/SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Dry air
with mostly clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again,
hot by middle to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7
degrees above the seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place
on Tuesday with continued above average warmth.

Flow aloft flattens out and becomes more zonal for the second half
of the week. This means continued very dry conditions, afternoon
breezes, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures remaining above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with FEW-SCT250.
Breezy west winds will continue to increase and will reach it`s
peak around 21-00Z before tapering off for the evening. Winds are
expected to continue low end breezes (10-15KT) from 03-06Z due to
a pacific cold front pushing in from the west this evening and
into the overnight hours. The front will shift west winds to the
northwest. KTCS and KDMN can expect the front to arrive around 02Z
with KELP and KLRU seeing the front by 03-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for all SW and south-central NM fire
weather zones today. Min RH values will tank into single digits for
the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento
Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing
and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy
conditions on today. Winds will range from 15-25 mph with higher
gusts of 30-40 mph, generally out of the W/SW.

Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL through
the week. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in place across
the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each afternoon with poor
overnight recoveries for almost all locations. Temperatures through
the week will be at or slightly above the seasonal average.

With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming
temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will
quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase
into the 90-97th percentile through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               60  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  88  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  88  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              50  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   55  90  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  92  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                63  92  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             65  96  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   64  95  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    56  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  88  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 50  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  79  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  88  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             46  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   49  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    52  86  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               50  81  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  89  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  89  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  90  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher