894
FXUS64 KEWX 261751
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today and Monday will be the hottest two days of the spring season,
and we`d like to think summer season as well. The eastward shift of
the base of the Central Plains upper trough will pull the dry higher
terrain air east into the rest of South Central Texas, leading to
the peak period of this early season Heatwave. The hottest ambient
air temperatures seen in any May at DRT will reach heat advisory
criteria based on temperature, while in areas to the south and east,
the heat index values getting into the 113 to 115 degree range have
much of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Prairies in an Excessive Heat
Warning. A similar day is projected for Monday for most areas, so
we`ll opt to extend this hazard to carry over into Monday. Tonight`s
minimum temperatures are again going to be very warm with more
highest minimum temperature records likely to fall.

At the end of this heatwave nightmare, there could be a few areas
destabilizing as a mid-level moisture fetch from the Pacific crosses
through Mexico. This could set up an inverted-V sounding look for
00Z Tuesday. As a result we`ve opted for an isolated mention of
thunderstorms for parts of the forecast area as a precursor for
slightly better rain chances to develop after 00Z. We could be
entering that transition period where the potential for hail is
reduced, but there should be enough heat out there to make any storm
that develops a risk for producing strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A slight pattern change during the long-term portion of the forecast
could lead to prolonged low chances of showers and storms during the
extended period. The center of the upper ridge will be well south of
our area and several weak disturbances will allow for at least a
slight chance to chance of showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon and evening periods beginning Monday and in place each day
through the upcoming work-week. It is much too difficult to really
pin down locations, amounts of rainfall, and impacts as what occurs
each day will likely be impacted by what happened during the prior
day. Some periods of locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out for
certain periods as PWAT values approach 2 inches at times. In
addition, higher CAPE values will also lead to possible strong storm
activity each day. With the increased rain chances and moisture,
high temperatures will be lower once again ranging from near 90 in
the northeast to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This will negate any
need for heat products next week. Overall, next week will be a tough
forecast as many want beneficial rainfall, but amounts and locations
will be highly uncertain day-to-day. While most locations have 20-30
PoPs each day next week, there will be some who unfortunately most
likely not see any rain at all next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Clouds have been stubborn to vacate the I-35 corridor early this
afternoon. Still hanging onto MVFR SAT/AUS/SSF along with some 5-6SM
visby with haze and likely some smoke in there as well. The 850
trough with its NW winds is pushing through the Hill Country and this
eventually should get into I35 and allow the MVFR decks to scatter
out. Already seeing this trend on Satellite. Out over the far
west...a surface trough has pushed through Val Verde County so DRT
has gone a westerly wind...eventually will be a N wind by later this
afternoon. Skies will remain clear at DRT rest of the day.

For tonight...any affect mid level dry air trying to work into the
region will not hold...and low clouds should redevelop with MVFR and
IFR at SAT/AUS/SSF. Was a little hesitant to bring the clouds into
DRT tomorrow morning with the NAM showing a deck...but decided to
mention it with a SCT instead. Winds should go fairly light after the
sun goes down...return with some light to moderate East and SE
tomorrow most areas. Despite a carry of slight pop for Monday across
the region, will leave mention of any TS out of the forecast as
confidence is too low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
(RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

         SUN      MON
        05/26    05/27
--------------------------
AUS   97/2018   100/2011
ATT   99/2018   100/2011
SAT   100/1989  100/2011
DRT   106/2018  106/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  77  99  75 /  10   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  99  74 /  10   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport    101  76 101  75 /  10   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            97  73  97  72 /  10   0  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          109  76 110  81 /   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  75  98  73 /  10   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport            103  76 105  75 /  10   0  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  78  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  77 101  75 /  10   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          101  78 103  76 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...09
Long-Term...17
Aviation...09