690
FXUS64 KEWX 041944
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024


Cloud cover is holding on across areas mainly east of the I35
corridor early this afternoon. Temperatures are ranging from near 90
where there is cloud cover, to the upper 90s in the west. Should see
those clouds break up a bit later with highs across the area later
today in the middle 90s to near 105 out west. Elevated dewpoints
will lead to dangerous heat index values for most of the area and a
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the area outside of the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau. The GFS and subsequent Fv3 is going
bonkers with rainfall and QPF amounts this evening as it convects
thunderstorm activity after 00z west of Austin then tracks southeast
through 06z. However, no other CAM or global model is showing this.
HREF probabilities for greater than 0.01" is 10-20 percent which is
indicative of this being an outlier. Therefore will show some 12%
PoPs in the grids but will not mention any weather. Will continue to
assess future runs of the HRRR and the 18z GFS to see how model
trends evolve but the most likely scenario for today is a continued
dry forecast as no focus for convection will likely be present in
our CWA.

Otherwise tonight, lows will be in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees
once again as nocturnal low clouds make a return to the area.
Another hot day is expected tomorrow with highs back in the middle
90s to near 106 out west. Dewpoints will also remain elevated and
portions of the area will almost certainly need another Heat
Advisory. Some counties will be likely right on the cusp as a
potential boundary moves into the area from the east so the exact
areas needing the advisory are not quite known yet. This boundary
could spark off some isolated convection mainly in the evening
hours. Instability amounts will be high and can`t rule out a strong
storm with this activity. SPC has placed most of the area in a level
1 (marginal) risk of severe storms in the new Day 2 update this
afternoon. Lows tomorrow night will be back in the middle 70s to
near 80 degrees.

Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a
closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure ridging builds into the local area during the Thursday
to the upcoming weekend period. Hot weather conditions are forecast
through the extended forecast time frame with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s across most areas and ranging from 100 to 107
along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are anticipated from Thursday
through Sunday with the possibility of having a Heat Advisory on
Thursday for some areas across South Central Texas. With the upper
level ridge moving overhead and then moving to the upper Texas coast
for the latter part of the week into the first part of the weekend,
good afternoon mixing is likely to control the local area
while keeping the heat advisory criteria in check.

Rain chances return to South Central Texas especially late Sunday
night into Monday as a cold front pushes across the central Texas.
The ECMWF pushes the boundary Monday morning and brings it all the
way to the coastal plains by the afternoon. However, the GFS keeps
the boundary over north Texas and crossing our local area on Tuesday
morning. Due to these differences, the GFS is drier and warmer for
the Monday period. Went ahead and did a blend of the GFS and ECWMF
solutions to come up with the Monday`s forecast. Whatever happens
with the front, we are only advertising slight chances for rain and
slightly below to normal climate temperatures for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR conditions are in the process of lifting to VFR as ceilings
are beginning to scatter. Southerly flow is expected through the
period with speeds gusting to near 20-25 knots at times. Another
round of MVFR ceilings can be expected tonight with a lower chance of
IFR ceilings at SAT/SSF. Chances for convection are pretty low during
the period but non-zero. Will leave the TAFs rain free as chances are
too low to mention.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

         TUE        WED        THU        FRI
        06/04      06/05      06/06      06/07
------------------------------------------------
AUS    99/2011*  100/2018   103/2011   100/2022
ATT    99/2008   101/2011   103/2022*  103/2022
SAT   100/1916   102/2022   104/2022   104/2022
DRT   104/2013*  107/2022*  110/2022   108/1974

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  96  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  95  73  96 /  10  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  98  73  99 /  10  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  94  72  94 /  10  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 107  80 107 /   0  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  94  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             78 100  75 102 /  10  10  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  96  73  96 /  10  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  94  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  75 100 /  10  10  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  99  76 101 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-
Wilson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...17
Aviation...29