Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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543 FXUS64 KEWX 240050 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 750 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A discrete severe thunderstorm across the San Angelo area continues to advance southeastward and is entering Mason County. This storm could survive long enough to reach portions of Gillespie and Llano counties. Added PoPs to this area as a result. The storm probably starts to decrease in intensity as it approaches but hail and strong winds could remain possible with this storm. It shouldn`t last much beyond 03 UTC as convective inhibition increases. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 This morning, a few thunderstorms passed over Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties before moving east to northeast out of the area. Storms continue early this afternoon to the north in the FWD CWA, although some backbuilding and outflow boundaries could provide more chances for a storm or two in similar areas to those of this morning. There is a small chance a storm could become severe due to large CAPE values and vertical shear, with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado all possible. Any convection should be north or east of South Central Texas by this evening. More chances for thunderstorms are seen in a similar area tomorrow afternoon over the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor ahead of the dryline and front to the north. These will also have the potential to be severe with mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Both today and tomorrow, any strong storms could also bring heavy rain leading to isolated flooding. Clouds continue to break up this afternoon with highs varied based on where clouds linger longest. Over the coastal plains I-35 corridor, Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, highs will be mainly in the low to mid 90s by late afternoon. Further west along the Rio Grande closer to the dryline, highs will top out in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Heat index values up to 108-111 degrees continue to warrant the Heat Advisory in place generally along and south of US 57 and west of I-37 through 7 PM. Low clouds redevelop overnight mainly over the eastern two thirds of the area. Warm overnight lows are expected again from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. Clouds look to mix out quicker tomorrow than today, aiding in a bump in high temperatures for Friday. The dryline will advance over counties along the Rio Grande during the afternoon with clear skies expected in these areas. Highs will be hot behind this feature, possibly reaching up to 106-108 degrees in a few locations, with heat index values lower due to the drier dewpoints. Ahead of this feature, hot temperatures and moderate humidity will lead to high heat index values ranging from around 100 to 112 degrees. The axis of highest heat indices will be over portions of the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. Some of these locations will warrant a Heat Advisory. With the current advisory in place through this afternoon, will hold off on issuance for now. Dangerous early season heat continues through this holiday weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Upper level ridging will remain in place over Mexico through the long term period, which will generally lead to a warming trend through the Memorial Day Weekend with Heat Advisories and/or Warnings likely. Dry conditions will also likely to prevail over the weekend, though an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across northern portions of the Hill Country Saturday afternoon/evening. At this time, Sunday appears to be the warmest day for south-central Texas, though each day through the weekend will have dangerous heat for those spending prolonged periods outdoors and not taking the proper precautions. Daily record MaxT`s and record warm MinT`s will also likely be challenged or set each day across the area. Del Rio specifically will likely have a couple of opportunities to set a new all time MaxT record for the month of May as well, which currently stands at 109F from earlier this month. A welcomed drop in temperatures is expected Tuesday into Wednesday of next week as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures will still likely be above average, yet noticeably different from the previous days. This front may also bring some isolated storm potential as well late Monday through Wednesday as the boundary lingers near the area. Temperatures may try to warm slightly through the second half of next week, though a few disturbances riding over the top of the upper ridge could bring some cloud cover and continued isolated storm chances to help keep temperatures somewhat at bay. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours with breezy east-southeasterly winds at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) with gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range. The wind speeds subside and low stratus with MVFR ceilings return to the I-35 terminals overnight into Friday morning. KDRT will continue with light to moderate east-southeasterly winds overnight with some scattered low clouds arriving near or after sunrise, where MVFR conditions may temporarily develop. VFR conditions return to all sites into and through Friday afternoon. Winds should not be as strong through Friday afternoon as compared to this afternoon. Directions will be out of the south-southeast to east-southeast. Isolated convection may be possible near the KAUS terminal for Friday afternoon/evening but confidence remains too low to enter PROB30 group at this time. This will be reevaluated in future TAF packages. && .CLIMATE... (RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THU FRI SAT SUN MON 05/23 05/24 05/25 05/26 05/27 ------------------------------------------------------------ AUS 99/2008 99/1955 100/2011 97/2018 100/2011 ATT 100/2008 104/1925 100/2011 99/2018 100/2011 SAT 99/2008* 101/1989* 103/1989 100/1989 100/2011 DRT 105/2000 109/2000 104/2011 106/2018 106/2018 * TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 97 75 97 / 0 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 99 75 98 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 93 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 107 76 108 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 94 73 95 / 10 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 98 74 97 / 0 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 95 77 95 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Gale Aviation...Brady