945
FXUS64 KEWX 202204
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
504 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over
northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions
early this afternoon. Clouds have been slow to break over the
Edwards Plateau, so opted to lower Max T`s by a degree or two this
afternoon, but it won`t make much difference, as it`ll still be hot.
Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New
Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we
start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold
front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working
southward, but don`t get your hopes up, as it`s unlikely to have
much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term. Hot
again on Tuesday with highs in the 100-105 range along the Rio
Grande and in the 90s elsewhere. As far as storm chances go, we may
see a stray shower or storm develop Tuesday afternoon/evening over
the Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains, but 700mb temperatures
will remain quite warm, resulting in strong capping. Anything that
can break through the cap would be strong to severe with large hail
and damaging winds, but the odds are less than 10% at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather through
the long term period, resulting in an early season heat wave. A few
weaknesses in the northern periphery of this ridge will help stall
our warming trend a bit Wednesday and Thursday, as well as bring a
low chance for isolated showers and storms to far northern portions
of our CWA (southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country). While there
will be sufficient instability and shear in place to support severe
storms both days, a capping inversion will be working to inhibit
convective development (especially on Wednesday), which is part of
the reason for the low PoPs aside from the subtle forcing.

Another chance for isolated storms seems possible Friday
afternoon/evening across northern portions of the Hill Country
before the ridge expands slightly northward over the weekend and
into the beginning of next week. This will lead to the warmest
temperatures of the year so far with widespread upper 90s to upper
100s expected for high temperatures and even warmer heat indices.
Heat advisories and/or warnings will be likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing at the area airports late
this afternoon. With continued low-level southerly flow should see a
return of MVFR stratus by the late evening or early overnight hours
for the area. These conditions should lift by 17-18z tomorrow.
South/southeast winds at the surface will be less than 10 knots
during the overnight periods, but increase to near 15-18 knots in the
afternoon periods. Otherwise, no major concerns this TAF cycle across
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  76  93 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  93  76  93 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  91  75  90 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 104  79 103 /   0  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  76  93 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  91  77  91 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  95  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...29