Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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252 FXUS64 KEWX 250512 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1212 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10 PM CDT across Burnet, Llano, and Williamson Counties. Main severe hazards will be large to very large and damaging winds with any severe storms that are able to move into these areas. The tornado threat is low but isolated spinup is possible. Locally heavy rainfall could also be possible with any of these cells. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Clouds are lingering a bit longer than expected across central portions of the area, which is keeping temperatures/heat indices a bit cooler than they otherwise would be. Outside of the clouds however, such as for areas along and east of I-35, heat index values are already near or exceeding heat advisory criteria. The clouds should eventually scatter more, and temperatures/heat index values will then begin to catch up. With that said, the heat advisory will remain in effect through 7pm. Outside of the heat, a 20-30% chance for storms remains in the forecast this afternoon and evening for our northern counties. Recent satellite imagery shows one failed attempt at convection already across northern Lampasas County, though CI will likely hold off for a couple more hours until a weak front moves closer to the area to provide better convergence/lift. Any storm that develops may quickly become severe in the high CAPE/decent shear environment that is in place. Large to very large hail will be the main threat, with a lower concern for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. Once developed, storms should generally push in an ESE direction and gradually weaken through the evening hours. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow due to a slight northward expansion of the higher 500mb heights. The main uncertainty tomorrow will be how much dewpoints can mix out. The NBM keeps dewpoints relatively high, mainly over the western portion of the area, but some high res models show some better mixing. Regardless, another Heat Advisory will be needed for portions of the area tomorrow, though some adjustments the area vs today`s advisory will likely be needed and therefore we plan to let the overnight shift handle issuing the advisories/warnings on a day by day basis. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Dangerous early season heat continues Sunday and Memorial Day as an upper level ridge remains over Mexico. A dryline will move into the some of our western most areas each afternoon leading to drier dewpoints behind the feature, but east of the dryline humid conditions will lead to elevated heat indices in the triple digits. Maximum temperatures each afternoon and warm overnight lows will likely break some records in a few locations through Monday, with DRT possibly beating their all time high temperature record for the month of May which currently stands at 109 degrees. That said, expect Heat Advisories or possibly even an Excessive Heat Warning both Sunday and Monday. With prolonged heat, the body has less time to recover and people can be more prone to heat related illnesses. Take proper precautions such as limiting time outside or finding places in communities to get cool such as libraries or malls. A trough located over the Central Plains on Sunday will move towards the northeast on Monday with a front expected to near the area Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures and heat indices finally decrease slightly Tuesday and the rest of the week, which should end the need for any additional heat products. The aforementioned front may stay fairly stagnant through much of the week which will also aid in the precipitation chances next week. Slightly lesser chances are seen Monday night for precipitation now, with increasing chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday. The synoptic pattern is pretty messy during this period leading to low confidence on any rain/thunderstorm locations or timing. Many have not seen rain in a while and this unfortunately is not a scenario for a widespread, sweeping rain, so some may again miss out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are prevailing across the area at the present time with some scattered low-clouds beginning to develop east of the I35 sites. Should see the MVFR ceilings move into the I35 sites later tonight. Can`t completely rule out some IFR ceilings at times, but chances were too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Chances for MVFR are a bit lower for DRT and will just mention SCT015. Southerly flow will continue through the period with slightly higher speeds during the afternoon periods. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 FRI SAT SUN MON 05/24 05/25 05/26 05/27 ------------------------------------------------ AUS 99/1955 100/2011 97/2018 100/2011 ATT 104/1925 100/2011 99/2018 100/2011 SAT 101/1989* 103/1989 100/1989 100/2011 DRT 109/2000 104/2011 106/2018 106/2018 * TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 110 74 109 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 105 74 104 / 10 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Gale Long-Term...27 Aviation...29