Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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203 FXUS64 KEWX 292316 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 616 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 There continues to be low confidence in the forecast through the short term period. Currently we are forecasting a 20% or lower chance for isolated storms late this afternoon and evening. The most likely location for storms will be across far western portions of the area as convection initiates along a dryline in west Texas and/or the higher terrain in Mexico and then drift east through the evening as they dissipate. Otherwise, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across eastern areas as well, though a particular location is hard to define with no obvious surface lifting mechanism. Any western storms will have the best potential to become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the threats. Dry conditions should prevail overnight with low chances for streamer showers tomorrow morning, mainly after sunrise, across eastern portions of the area. Tomorrow afternoon, we`ll carry a low chance for isolated thunderstorms areawide, though there is a good chance the afternoon and evening hours will remain dry. We have the most confidence in storms developing in west Texas and the Panhandle tomorrow afternoon, which may form into a line that arrives to central Texas during the early morning hours on Friday. This line, assuming it makes it, will offer the best potential for rain during the short term period but also the best potential for severe weather with a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk in place. This line of storms may continue to impact the area beyond 12Z Friday morning which shifts into the Day 3/long term period. High and low temperatures will remain similar each day with values near to slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 We start the last day of this work week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and areas mainly along and east of Highway 77. The overnight storm complex across central Texas is forecast to be around through the morning commute. Some of the storms will be capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging winds. We could have a lull short period late Friday morning and early Friday afternoon before new storm development starts across the Hill Country and over central Texas where a stationary front is likely to linger. For the Friday night into Saturday morning period, there is low confidence on where the storms may develop and how long they will last. However, forecast soundings show plenty of instability and elevated mid level LR as well as DCAPE values indicating the possibility of strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. It is going to depend on the heating of the day, lingering outflow boundaries and synoptic scale systems placement. The wet weather pattern continues into the weekend with chances for showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and evening associated with daytime heating and storms developing ahead of the dryline over west Texas and outflow boundaries moving across the local area and interacting with a moist Gulf airmass. Temperatures are likely be around climate normals for this period ranging from the upper 80s and 90s during the day and 70s overnight. Chances for rain are low for the upcoming work week but temperatures will be increasing as well as humidity values, which could mark the return of heat advisories as heat index values increase to critical numbers. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall, a rather quiet TAF period compared to this time last night as storms look to avoid terminals for this evening. The possibility will exist for some TS at AUS, SAT, and SSF on Thursday afternoon, particularly AUS, but confidence is quite low on timing, so it has been left out of the TAF for now. Expect MVFR ceilings to fill in between 07-08Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF overnight, with DRT seeing MVFR cigs by 11Z Thursday. VFR ceilings return by midday along with breezy ESE winds of 10-15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 90 75 88 / 20 20 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 89 74 89 / 20 20 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 93 75 93 / 20 20 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 72 87 72 85 / 20 20 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 98 79 99 / 20 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 87 72 86 / 20 20 20 60 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 75 95 / 20 10 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 91 74 90 / 20 20 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 89 75 88 / 20 20 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 75 93 / 20 20 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 77 95 / 20 20 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Gale Long-Term...17 Aviation...MMM