Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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083 FXUS64 KEWX 291732 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The main area of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east into the eastern counties at the present time. This activity associated with a mid-level impulse has allowed for widespread beneficial rainfall to occur over most of the CWA. In addition to the rain, we have seem some reports of some gusty winds on the back edge of the precip shield indicative of perhaps a weak wake low. Will continue to monitor this for any possible higher wind speeds which would need some sort of headline to cover the threat. Further to the west, some additional scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms can be seen on radar with the bulk of the activity in Mexico but now seeing some of this skirt just east of the Rio Grande. The presentation and movement of this is indicative of additional mid-level lift. This activity is not picked up well by the latest high-res model guidance but think as this moves east into our worked over airmass much of this should struggle to strengthen. Will continue to monitor for possible signs this thinking is wrong. Latest high-res models are fairly quiet for the today period through the late afternoon and evening hours as the atmosphere struggles to bounce back from the overnight activity. Will keep some low PoPs in the forecast for mainly the eastern and northern counties through the afternoon. Overall not too confident in the forecast, but with peak heating could see some additional isolated showers and storms in addition to the left over morning activity. The severe threat is non-zero, but overall low. The Day 1 Outlook has the CWA in a level 1 risk for severe storms. Otherwise, high temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s in the north to the upper 90s in the Rio Grande Counties. For tonight, will keep some 20 PoPs in the forecast for the chance of an isolated shower or storm. Lows will be in the 70s. Additional isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms can be expected Thursday, but overall chances and confidence is low with little focus for forcing. Highs will be back in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A daily opportunity for low to medium chances of rain and storms will continue through the end of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend. These thunderstorm chances will remain attributed to a combination of factors, including a stationary front across North Texas, a dryline across West Texas, any outflow boundaries that develop from convection each day, and weak impulses/disturbances riding above the top of the ridge centered across Mexico embedded within the westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number of factors at play and the nuances of each. Convective parameters may support organized strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain at times as well. Temperatures will run near or slightly above normal through the weekend. THe rain and storm chances look to decline and temperatures look to start rising into early to middle of next week as medium range guidance shows the ridging over Mexico starts to strengthen and nudge more northward into Texas and the Desert Southwest. We will have to keep an eye on those peak heat indices again next week each afternoon as a result of the climbing temperatures and continued elevated dew points. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours today. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of south- central Texas later this afternoon, though chances for impacts at any terminal are currently too low to mention in the TAFs. Low-end MVFR cigs are expected to build in overnight and linger through tomorrow morning before lifting and scattering. Additional isolated storms are possible tomorrow afternoon as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 90 74 88 / 20 30 30 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 90 73 89 / 20 30 30 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 93 74 92 / 20 20 30 40 Burnet Muni Airport 72 86 71 86 / 20 30 40 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 78 100 / 20 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 89 71 86 / 20 40 30 60 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 74 95 / 20 10 30 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 92 73 91 / 20 20 30 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 89 75 88 / 20 40 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 30 40 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 75 94 / 20 20 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...Gale