Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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069 FXUS64 KEWX 010525 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Unfortunately, there continues to be low confidence in the forecast through the short term regarding the timing and location of any additional showers and thunderstorms. CAMs continue to depict isolated to scattered convection developing this afternoon/evening, though there are large differences in where and when. Therefore, we`ll be focusing our attention on some of the most likely areas for development which include a surface boundary approaching the northern Hill Country which is evident in airport observations and satellite imagery, a dryline that remains in west Texas, and the SDB Mountains in Mexico. Convection is already noted over the mountains, though any convection that develops along the aforementioned boundary will likely impact the area first due to its proximity. Regardless of where and when storms develop, there remains a threat for a few severe thunderstorms as there is plenty of SBCAPE west and sufficient elevated instability remaining where storms moved through this morning. There remains plenty of effective bulk shear as well. Large hail will be the main threat with storms today with a secondary threat for damaging wind gusts. Any activity should diminish after sunset with generally quiet conditions overnight. Additional isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with a focus on the coastal plains during the afternoon associated with a weak 500mb disturbance, transitioning to western areas in the evening as dryline activity will attempt to push into the area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Much of the upcoming week is largely expected to remain precipitation free along with above normal temperatures across all areas. Expect daytime highs to range from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees Sunday through Tuesday, with highs increasing into the mid 90s to 110 degrees for the remainder of the forecast period. Overnight lows will be warm as well, with 70s to near 80 for most locations. The NBM numbers looked too low and we have bumped these values up for the mid to late week period. With temperatures set to increase and recent rains helping to keep humidity levels up, we will likely see the return of heat headlines for a good portion of the upcoming work week. We will keep a low chance for afternoon showers and storms in the forecast for Sunday across our far northern counties. The models indicate some weak lift embedded in the west/southwest flow aloft will move across the region. As we head into the middle to late portion of the forecast, the medium range models show the subtropical ridge building to our west, which would bring some northwest flow aloft to the region. These types of patterns to tend to favor late night/early morning MCS activity, but overall confidence in the details is low at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR turns MVFR overnight. VFR returns by midday on Saturday, only to fall back to MVFR Saturday night. There are low PROBs for SHRA/TSRA on Saturday into Saturday night. However there is uncertainty on timing, locations, and movement. As a result, have kept mention out of forecast, at this time. Southeasterly winds will prevail, becoming breezy/gusty on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 93 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 90 75 91 / 10 10 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 81 104 / 30 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 97 77 99 / 20 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 92 77 92 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 96 78 97 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 97 79 98 / 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...04