381
FXUS64 KEWX 251151
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A few pop-up showers are forming across Central TX overnight, but
with well below 10 percent coverage and no remaining surface focus. A
more concentrated focus of convection over West Central/North
Central TX is located along the next front to arrive, and a distinct
frontal boundary can be seen on radar early this morning. Tracking
the movement on radar, this front is moving about 15 mph due
southward and should still be arriving into our northern CWA just
after sunrise. However, the boundary will probably be less traceable
once arriving into South Central TX as winds above the boundary
layer out of the north ahead of the front will mix down and reduce
surface convergence. There will still be some speed convergence in
the mixed layer late in the morning, so isolated convection will
still be possible, but will be quickly shifting southeast of the
escarpment by midday and out of the forecast area by 00Z.

The breezy north midday winds will be sufficient enough to trend
high temperatures down but mainly just over the northern counties
today. More noticeable changes will be expected in the evening with
a pleasant north breeze and the dew points falling into the 50s to
low 60s. As winds decouple some by Thursday morning, lows should
drop to the 60s or lower area-wide, with mainly the Hill Country
seeing the lows in the mid/upper 50s. The persistence of north winds
at the surface and aloft should be good for a drop of high
temperatures back to seasonal values for late September, or mainly
in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A mid and upper level low combined with the remnants of `Helene` will
remain anchored over the southeastern U.S. into the middle
Mississippi River valley through the end of the week. On the backside
of this low, north to northwest flow remains intact on Friday with
the medium range models showing a weak upper disturbance dropping
southward into the region into the upcoming weekend. While these
disturbances would normally be monitored for rain chances, with a dry
air mass in place, we do not expect any chance for rain through the
upcoming weekend. As these disturbances roll through, a reinforcing
shot of northerly winds in the lower levels is anticipated Friday,
with perhaps another weak surge late Saturday into early Sunday. With
dry air in the low-levels and clear skies, overnight lows will dip
into the mid to upper 50s over the Hill Country, with lower to mid
60s elsewhere. Daytime highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s,
with the warmest temperatures out west along the Rio Grande.

For the early portion of next week, the mid and upper level ridge
axis begins to build eastward into the southern U.S. plains.
Temperatures may warm slightly on Monday, with models showing a surge
of cooler air possibly moving into the region on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The vague position of the cold front will look to enter into the far
northern part of the CWA around 12Z, with winds blowing in a variety
of directions on either side of the weakening fine-line signature
from area radars. This further reinforces the lack of a need to
mention nearby convection, but the nonzero chances will remain
through around 18Z. Winds are trending to mainly west ahead of the
front and should be NW for a couple hours before going full north
toward 17Z. By this time some higher gusts to 20-25 KTs will be
possible. Winds should diminish tonight and be less gusty on
Thursday. No MVFR or lower cigs are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  66  90  63 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  66  88  60 /  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  66  92  61 /  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  62  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  67  93  66 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  63  86  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  65  90  59 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  65  89  60 /  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  66  88  61 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  69  90  64 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  69  92  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18