895
FXUS62 KFFC 210519
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
119 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

WPC surface analysis reveals a high pressure system centered on
the Appalachians. Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows cumulus
development over the mountains of NE and N-central GA, where CAMs
are showing orographically-forced showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. So far, convection has
not quite initiated, but with SBCAPE at 1500 J/kg across the
mountains per SPC mesoanalysis and sufficient low-level and mid-
level lapse rates, expect to see some showers develop in the next
couple hours with further warming/destabilization. SPC has far
north GA outlooked in a General Thunder risk, which makes sense,
as strong convection appears unlikely given high pressure, weak
ridging aloft, and a relatively drier airmass in place. High
temperatures will be in the lower- to mid-80s outside of the
mountains, where high temps will be in the 70s. The overnight
period will be dry besides the possibility of a few lingering
showers across NE and N-central GA. Low temps will be in the 60s.

Weak ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will persist
tomorrow (Tuesday). Similar to today, CAMs suggest development of
orographically-driven showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the
Appalachians tomorrow. Per the HREF, SBCAPE values look to be
similar to those today, but with the high pressure setup further
establishing itself over the Southeast with continued ridging
aloft, convection may have a more difficult time/take longer in
the afternoon to initiate. High temps will generally be a few
degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid- to upper-80s -- and
in the mountains, highs will be in the 70s again.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Starting off the long term period with Wednesday, the area will
continue to be under the influence of the long wave ridge set up
over almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. This along with
the lack of moisture over the area will continue the dry and warm
trend over the area. The unfortunate piece to this is that
temperature will quickly rise with many area reaching close to 90
which goes in line with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day
outlook showing above normal temperatures.

While this ridging is dominating our area, the low pressure
system to the west will track into the Great Lakes region,
dragging a cold front into Tennessee where it is expected to stall
out. While this is happening, the ridging moves off to the east
and the flow becomes more zonal over the area which gives way to
short bursts of vorticity moving through the overall flow. With
the front stalling over Tennessee and the waves sticking to more
of north Georgia, the rain chances beginning on Friday will be
mainly confined to the northern portions of the area although
Saturday showers could reach down into central Georgia. Rain
chances have decreased slightly over the weekend but should the
front sag any further south then those rain chances would sag
south as well. Temps will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for
much of the area through the period with no real relief in sight
unfortunately.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through TAF cycle. Intermittent periods of reduced
vsbys as low as 2SM at MCN possible through at least 10Z.
FEW035-050 developing as a cumulus field between 15 and 17Z before
returning to FEW250/SKC by sunset on Tuesday. Light ESE winds at
5KT or less will become VRB03KT To calm at the end of the period.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on reduced vsbys at MCN. High confidence on
remaining elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     59  83  61  83 /   0   0   0  20
Cartersville    62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        65  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     63  85  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           61  88  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            64  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         63  88  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...KAL