776
FXUS63 KFGF 212357
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northerly winds gusting to 50 mph are expected across the
  southern Red River Valley this afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized overland flooding for the
  Southern Red River Valley and into west central Minnesota.

- River Flood watches in effect for southern Red River Valley
  points.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Radar reflectivity is starting to diminish across many areas,
with obs still showing at least light rain in west central
Minnesota. Precipitation is expected to continue to shift north
and east along the western edge of the upper low. Winds have
remained rather consistent this evening, with gusts still
ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Minimal changes needed this evening
as the forecast remains on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

While we are maybe lucky in the fact we are largely avoiding the
severe weather that some of our neighbors to the south in IA/WI are
having to day still system will still provide unique problems for
our area. Currently there is a wind advisory out for much of west
central Minnesota and adjoining parts of North Dakota. This advisory
also extends north into the Red Lake/Lake of the Woods region where
the pivoting axis of deformation and strong pressure gradient will
linger longer into Wednesday morning. Primary reasoning for the
advisory follows the strong low level pressure gradient resulting in
925-850mb over 40 kts.

A likely more impactful piece of this system is the widespread
rainfall across west central Minnesota into northern Minnesota.
Current FFG indicates around 1.5-2 inches in a 6 hour period. Even
with expected rain rates over 0.5"/hr per MPD 296 it seems unlikely
to see flash flooding soils likely not hydrophobic yet. Thus a more
likely scenario is to see sort term ponding in fields and ditches
with delayed responses from rivers and stream later this week and
the excess moisture permeates through respective basins. Current
guidance indicates at least 2+ inches across this area in the next 2
days and specifically in the southern Red River Basin with even more
rain later this week. There is about a 50 percent chance for rivers
to exceed minor flood stage across this area, with uncertainty due
to rainfall amounts and location along with how much will run off
into the river systems.

After this initial system SW flow will bring another developing low
to the northern plains with a warm front draped west-east across SD
and west central MN. Probs for > 500 j/kg remain low for our area
indicating a low severe threat as we remain on the cool side of the
front though still in close enough proximity to bear monitoring.
Probs for > 1" with this wave are 25 percent so not expected without
convective elements but also still a possibility. A brief break in
the rain chances with short term ridging after the late week wave
though the northern jet stream remains active with rain chances
likely increasing towards the tail end of the weekend into early
next week. Overall the active patter will result in cloudy to partly
cloudy skies most days with highs staying in the 50s/60s and lows in
the upper 30s to 40s. Excess moisture and cloud should prevent ideal
radiational cooling and limit the frost threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IFR conditions prevail at KBJI this evening with VFR ceilings at
all other sites. Rain will slowly diminish at KFAR by 05Z, with
just VCSH thereafter. For KTVF, this will occur a bit later,
with precipitation chances falling gradually through the night.
KBJI is the location closest to the upper low that is bringing
rain and wind to much of the area. Gusty winds, LLWS and low
ceilings are expected to prevail into Wednesday morning. IFR
ceilings and visibility are expected to improve starting
Wednesday morning at KBJI. KDVL and KGFK are expected to remain
VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ039-049-052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ002-003-022-023-
     027>032-040.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ006-009-015>017-
     024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch