191
FXUS63 KFGF 041448
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will continue to track
  through the area this morning, with the greatest rainfall
  amounts still expected north of a line from Valley City to
  Baudette.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
  morning and afternoon. If enough heating occurs east of the
  Red River Valley, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
  there from 1 pm to 4 pm, with hail up to 1 inch and wind
  gusts up to 60 mph being the primary hazards.

- 40 to 50 mph wind gusts with additional showers and
  thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph
  wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Initial morning shower activity has begun to clear with a few
rumbles of thunder still seen across northwest MN. the cold
front is now to the Devils Lake/ Jamestown line with an arrival
in the valley by noon. Clouds are clearing across northwest MN
so expecting intensification to severe thresholds by 1 pm with
all hazards possible.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered showers continue this morning still slowly moving
northeast. Another wave will make its way through our area this
afternoon and will mostly impact our Minnesota counties. There`s
still a moderate amount of cloud cover that may hinder our
Severe potential this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Synopsis...
The expected 700/500mb wave, 850/700mb warm advection, and a
strong low level jet are currently providing the main lift for
the complex of showers and storms moving into the western FA.
These features will continue to push slowly eastward today. The
upper low or lows will eventually set up across southern Canada
toward the Great Lakes, setting the stage for a windy Wednesday
and Thursday. There is much more uncertainty beyond that, but no
big precipitation producers appear at this point.

...This morning...
As of 2 am, there was a long line of showers and thunderstorms
extending from Western Manitoba all the way down into Nebraska,
moving eastward. It appears there must be a compact wave within
this area just northwest of Jamestown, where there seems to be
some counter-clockwise spin to the echoes. Believe this is why
the models have been showing the highest potential for
precipitation amounts of 1.00 inches or more, mainly north of a
line from Valley City to Baudette. The echoes are weaker and not
as widespread to the south of this line. As mentioned above, the
low level jet is pretty strong (35 to 50 knots) feeding into
this complex, and precipitable water values are around 1.3 to
1.4 inches. Not too much instability around for this time of the
night, but will continue to monitor this area.

...This afternoon...
As mentioned yesterday at this time, there is a conditional
threat for severe storms east of the Red River Valley, mainly
from 1 pm to 4 pm this afternoon. The main hazards would be hail
up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is conditional, as
there is a lot of shower/storm activity going on now (with thick
clouds too), which will continue through the morning. If some
decrease to the clouds can occur later this morning into the
early afternoon east of the Valley, some better instability
could develop. As it stands, some of the CAMs are indicating
afternoon highs to the east of the Valley approaching the upper
70s to around 80, with surface dewpoints climbing to the mid
60s. This is definitely the high end though, even more so if
the clouds/rain hold down any heating there. So the two
scenarios for today (which seem to be shown by the HREF UH
tracks), are first that the clouds/rain hold, and any severe
storms fire east of this FA...or second, a brief window of
decreasing clouds occurs and enough instability develops that a
few severe storms fire east of the Valley from 1 pm to 4 pm.

...Wednesday and Thursday...
There is still a consistent showing in the NBM and other
ensembles for the 700/500mb low to stagnate across southern
Canada to the Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a windy
Wednesday and Thursday, although Wednesday looks slightly more
gusty at this point. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday, with just showers Thursday. The most wind and
shower/thunder activity would be during the afternoons of both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Some light fog is starting to develop after rain showers have
moved over the TAF sites to create IFR conditions at some
airports. Given how thin the fog is I dont expect it to stick
around long. After 18z a stronger wave will move through our
area to produce more thunderstorms affecting KTVF and KBJI
primarily. There`s a little uncertainty on whether KFAR and KGFK
will be in the path of the thunderstorms this afternoon due to
timing and storm path.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM