179
FXUS63 KFGF 242354
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds in southeastern North Dakota have picked up into the 25
  to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph, issued a wind
  advisory for Barnes, Ransom, Sargent, through 7 PM.

- Some snow has been falling in our far northwestern counties.
  While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost
  development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s.

- Additional scattered showers into the holiday weekend, but
  widespread rain has already impacted area rivers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Extended the wind advisory through 10pm and added several
counties as winds continue to gust upwards of 45mph. Other
forecast elements remain on track this evening as colder air
fills into the region. Light snow is being reported at several
sites in the Devils lake basin, including Cando and Langdon.
Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle
30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has
produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and
one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing,
but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs
all have cells diminishing before sunset. Winds will also
decrease around 00Z as the pressure gradient relaxes and the
core of pressure rises and cold air advection moves off to the
east. Wind advisory for our far southwestern counties should be
coming down by this evening.

The weakening showers will join the rain that has been soaking
the northern counties this afternoon, with some snow flakes
continuing to mix in across far northwestern portions of the
CWA. At this point think travel impacts will be minimal for
winter, but plenty of cold temperatures to work with as cold air
advection continues. Even with not much clearing until close to
morning, readings in the upper Devils Lake Basin are already in
the mid 30s. Expect the 30s to spread south and east into
tonight, just a question of how far. Continued winds and clouds
will not bring the classic frost formation on the ground, but
temps will drop down into the 33 to 36 range across portions of
northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Put out a frost advisory
for late tonight into tomorrow morning.

West then northwesterly sets up as the upper low exits off into
Canada, but some weak shortwaves could bring some periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly with decent
ensemble agreement on a stronger shortwave Sunday night into
Monday. Ridge building in for Wednesday/Thursday, then southwest
flow and a more active pattern returns for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

IFR to MVFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this evening.
Scattered showers continue to bring visibility down
occasionally into the 2-3SM range, with ceilings falling to just
under 1500 feet. Outside of showers, MVFR conditions prevail,
which should remain the case through much of the evening and
into the early overnight period. Gusty winds will remain
elevated through the rest of the evening before tapering off
overnight. Heading into the late overnight hours and into
Saturday morning, shower activity is expected to diminish, with
remnant low ceilings through around sunrise. Slow improvement is
expected through the remainder of the morning hours on
Saturday, with VFR conditions expected to return to most sites
around midday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-039-049-
     052-053.
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-004-
     005-007-008-013>015.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch