Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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642 FXUS63 KFGF 281709 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected Thursday across the region with the probability of more than 0.50" around 30% in the northern valley increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Webcams and surface observations have shown a little light rain around Thief River Falls. The Mayville radar doesn`t show too much in that spot, but is showing a few other echoes now northwest of Wadena. Went ahead and matched up with NWS Duluth and added isolated showers through the afternoon along and east of the Red River Valley. UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The models did a pretty good job nailing the MVFR (low clouds) conditions that have moved into areas along and north of highway 2 this morning. To the south of highway 2, the morning sun, shortwave, and cold temperatures aloft have led to fairly rapid cumulus development. So with southern areas clouding up too, most of the FA will stay mainly cloudy throughout most of the day, but there could be some decreasing clouds throughout the afternoon (mainly to the west of the Red River Valley). There is some upstream shower activity across southern Ontario, but this should mainly drop into the Minnesota arrowhead through the afternoon. The afternoon forecast in our area should be precipitation free, unless a few showers happen to pop up over portions of our Minnesota FA. UPDATE Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A few lingering showers are pushing southeast this morning in the Fosston and Park Rapids and Wahpeton areas. This activity will clear the FA over the next couple hours. In its wake a period of clear skies will give way to a deck of stratus clouds which will impact the days temps along with a north wind. Forecast accounts for all this and will adjust to match the current trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Overall forecast remains similar to much of the month of May with several chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over the next 7 days. Below normal temp regime is expected to gradually warm to closer to normal values as we move into June this weekend with highs climbing into the 70s. Model ensembles remain in good agreement with the forecast for much of the week and into the weekend. Another couple days of below normal temps, especially today as highs struggle under mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds with temps in the upper 50s and low 60s. SFC high pressure will track across the area tonight with skies clearing and winds lightening temps will cool efficiently with the favorable radiative cooling environment. With another night of lows around 40, cooler in the typically cold spots in NW MN where winds will be the weakest for much of the night. Probability of temps less than 36 were less than 2% so will refrain from any frost headlines. Wednesday will see upper level ridging initiate a south wind and warmer temps return to the area before the next round of rain comes into the area for Thursday and at least the first part of Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with a few hundred joules of ML cape will bring a band of showers with embedded thunder across the area during the day Thursday, which may linger across portions of MN zones into Friday morning. PoPs currently around 90% with this feature as its a high confidence of occurrence. As stated in the key messages, the probability of more than 0.50" is around 30% in the northern valley increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south. With the SW flow continuing there remains multiple episodes of PoPs. Ensemble guidance depicts much higher spread in a second wave Friday night into Saturday lowering pops to 20 to 30% of occurrence. Slightly higher chances with another wave at the end of the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 40 to 50% for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The main aviation impact will be within the first 6 hours, and it is due to the MVFR ceilings out there. Really only expect another 1 to 2 hours of these ceilings of BKN-OVC025-030 until they rise above 3000 feet. The steady north-northwest winds will quickly decrease this evening, then turn around to the S-SE Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the cumulus out there now will begin to thin by late afternoon, before clearing out in the evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...Godon