Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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248 FXUS63 KFGF 251446 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 946 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern to continue with chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 946 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 It remains mainly cloudy along and north of highway 2, with breezy west winds. South of highway 2, there is a lot more sun with lower winds. There are still a few light showers along the Canadian border, and these will linger through the rest of the morning. Overall, the forecast remains in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Western Benson county with late clearing dropped to 32-34 rest of the area with clouds held 35-38 degrees. They have dropped all they will and will slowly rise now so will go ahead and drop the frost advisory. Cloud cover will remain the issue at least first half of the day in terms of how it clears gradually northeast. Of note there is a mid cloud band which is in NW ND moving into central ND and radar has a few mid level showers with it around Minot. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 At 08z 500 mb low was over Lake of the Woods with surface just nearby in SE Manitoba. This system will continue to drift north along the Manitoba/Ontario border today with the south edge of clouds and light rain gradually edging north so that by this afternoon clouds and light rain chances are confined to parts of the Lake of the Woods. For the rest of the area, There will be some mid clouds from across SE ND into parts of WC MN. Some early morning sprinkles Wheaton and Elbow Lake will be done by 12z. The colder temps will also depart quickly and today will end up with highs upper 50s north to upper 60s south. West winds also gradually diminishing and noticeably less wind than on Friday. For temps starting out this early morning...clouds and wind keeping temps steady in the 34 to 39 range over northeast ND and NW MN. No actual frost occurring but temps in some areas remaining sub 36 thru 12/13z. Will do away with advisory when that occurs. Tonight will see a short wave move quickly east thru SD into central MN with a band of 700 mb frontogenesis and some instability (few hundred CAPE) just south of the our fcst area from Watertown to Alexandria area 00z-03z. Will keep our chance pops into our part of WC MN up to about Fergus Falls to in between Park Rapids and Wadena tonight. Sunday will start off chilly in the north part of the fcst area where skies mainly clear and winds under 10 mph. Fcst lows in the 35-39 range. Then increasing clouds from the west later Sunday with chance for showers and a few t-storms Sun night into Monday as a broad short wave and sfc low move thru. Precip amounts look more manageable with probs for more than 0.50 inch below 20 percent. Brief break and warm up mid week, esp Thursday, as upper ridge builds in but just in time for another potential slow moving upper trough to develop in Minnesota and give chances for showers and t-storms late Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Improving conditions this morning, but as usual timing of when MVFR ceilings at DVL, GFK, TVF and BJI move out is uncertain and subject to amendments. Trends though will be for VFR conditions this aftn all TAF sites with a west wind 10-20kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night for NDZ053. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle