116
FXUS63 KFGF 281940
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of rain will move from west to east across the FA
  Thursday into Thursday night, although anticipated rainfall
  amounts look a little lower now

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The last 700/500mb shortwave is rotating southward through
Minnesota this afternoon, with scattered showers across most of
the state (mostly east of this FA). Ridging builds in behind
this wave for tonight through Wednesday night. This is followed
by a parade of short waves again, with the next one Thursday
into Thursday night.

The band of clouds teetering between MVFR/VFR this afternoon
remains pretty thick along and north of Interstate 94. Think
this will remain thick into the late afternoon/early evening,
while the edges will begin to thin. Not sure how fast or if
these thicker clouds will decrease this evening. Because of this
lingering cloud cover and the fact that dewpoints are still in
the mid 40s, don`t feel any spot will see frost tonight. There
may be some cumulus development again Wednesday afternoon, but
nothing like today. This will allow temperatures to return to
more normal late May highs.

Have been watching the evolution of the next wave for Thursday
into Thursday night for a number of days now. It continues to
look like a line of showers, with possibly some embedded
thunder, moving from west to east across the FA. Any stronger
convection is not expected, which will tend to limit
precipitation amounts to the lower end. There is also nothing
immediately behind it, so once it moves through that is it. For
those reasons, confidence is increasing that precipitation
amounts will be on the lower side. The NBM today shows about a
60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.25 inches
along the Canadian border to about an 80 percent probability
along the South Dakota border. Probabilities for amounts greater
than 0.50 inches have lowered quite a bit, ranging from 15
percent along the Canadian border to 40 percent along the South
Dakota border. After this rolls through, zonal flow continues,
with a parade of waves anticipated again. Other waves
(with associated precipitation chances) are possible Friday
night/Saturday morning, Sunday/Sunday night, and Tuesday. Since
these additional waves are still so far off, confidence in
saying much more at that at this point is difficult.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The main aviation impact will be within the first 6 hours, and
it is due to the MVFR ceilings out there. Really only expect
another 1 to 2 hours of these ceilings of BKN-OVC025-030 until
they rise above 3000 feet. The steady north-northwest winds will
quickly decrease this evening, then turn around to the S-SE
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the cumulus out there now will
begin to thin by late afternoon, before clearing out in the
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon