Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
012 FNUS73 KFGF 231341 FWSFGF Spot Forecast for Nidaros NPB...MN DNR National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 841 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates. .DISCUSSION... Complex forecast today at your burn site in south-central Otter Tail County. A warm front will be draped across southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota today, with east-northeast winds north of the front and southerly winds south of the front. Southerly winds will become gusty in the 20-30 mph range this afternoon and evening. South of the front will also feature a period of opportunity where RH values dip in the 30-40 percent range mid to late afternoon before potential thunderstorms develop/move into west-central Minnesota as early as 3 PM. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe bringing hail and/or erratic gusty winds over 50 mph. Confidence in today`s forecast is lowered due to uncertainties tied to location of the warm front that will be either over your location or in the northern portion of Otter Tail County, in addition to timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Should the warm front push north of your location, your site holds a high chance of experiencing RH values in the 30-40 percent range, best chance of occuring between 2-6PM. Around this same time or delayed 1-2 hours, winds would increase out of the south gusting 20-30 mph. Temperatures reaching into the 70s and winds out of the south would indicate this is occuring. Should the warm front be stalled over your location, winds will be more easterly to southeasterly, with RH values likely staying higher than 40 percent and winds lighter in magnitude less than 20 mph. Temperatures lingering in the 60s to near 70 in the 2-6PM period would indicate this is happening. Either scenario still features chance for showers during the morning and early afternoon, followed by chance for thunderstorms starting as early as 3PM, lasting into the evening. Again, there is a chance for strong to severe storms, in addition to heavy rainfall. The chance for additional showers and thunderstorms continues through tonight and Friday, with gusty winds over 30 mph Friday afternoon. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of showers late in the morning. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........51 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL. Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 15 mph increasing to south 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....15200 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to 114800 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to (83700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........67 52 37 51 52 54 58 61 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH Temp............61 64 67 69 71 71 72 71 RH..............75 66 59 55 51 51 51 53 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT wind gust.9 12 14 16 16 18 18 19 Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.2 4.1 5.7 6.0 5.0 4.8 3.6 Mixing wind dir.SE S S S S S S S Mixing wind spd.10 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 Vrate kt-ft/1K..15 30 70 115 119 105 110 84 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Rain showers likely through the night. Chance of thunderstorms overnight. Min temperature.....Around 54. Max humidity........87 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......700 ft AGL. Mixing winds........Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the south 15 to 20 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....47700 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing to 9800 knot-ft late in the night. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........65 71 76 81 83 82 Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Temp............71 68 65 63 61 60 RH..............55 61 68 72 75 78 20 ft wind......SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 S 10 20 ft wind gust.19 18 19 20 21 21 Mix hgt (ft)....2400 700 700 900 800 1000 Mixing wind.....SE 25 S 20 S 20 S 20 S 20 S 20 Vrate kt-ft/1K..48 11 11 16 13 17 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 62. Min humidity........67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL. Mixing winds........Southwest around 20 mph shifting to the west 25 to 30 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....15600 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to 89800 knot-ft in the afternoon. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........81 78 75 70 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Temp............59 59 60 54 RH..............83 87 84 80 20 FT wind......S 15G22 S 15G23 SW 15G23 W 15G25 Mix hgt (ft)....900 1800 3000 3200 Mixing wind.....S 20 SW 20 W 25 W 30 Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 33 65 82 $$ Forecaster...CJ Requested by...Tyler Larson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414998.0/FGF .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL tyler.k.larson@state.mn.us