Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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789 FXUS65 KFGZ 030919 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 219 AM MST Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hotter temperatures and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the into Arizona for much of this week. Slightly cooler temperatures expected by the weekend, along with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Not much change in the forecast through Thursday as near normal temperatures today and Tuesday give way to much hotter weather mid to late week. This is due to strong high pressure building over the state. There were some changes to the forecast later in the week as the influence from the closed low off the Baja peninsula is somewhat less in the latest guidance for our region Friday/Saturday. The low is forecast to move more slowly northward, keeping the high in place and allowing for less moisture/clouds for Friday and Saturday. For this reason, the Excessive Heat Watch for the lower elevations of Yavapai Co, Grand Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons/Page has been extended and now includes both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below 4000 feet in these areas are forecast to reach 105-111 degrees. It will be hot elsewhere too, upper 90s for Prescott/Payson, near 90 at Flagstaff/Show Low/Window Rock, and 100-104 in the LCR Valley/Winslow. With the lower expected moisture availability, PoPs have also dropped off and are now around 20% for the White Mtns Thursday and Friday and below 10% elsewhere. Chances for Saturday and Sunday are around 10-20% for most of northern Arizona. Any shower/storm activity still looks to be high-based with little rainfall, gusty winds, and some isolated dry lightning. As the weak low shifts northward toward the state over the weekend, high temperatures should be slightly less hot - back down to within a few degrees of normal by Sunday. && .AVIATION...Monday 03/06Z through Tuesday 04/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 04/06Z through Thursday 06/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds less than 10kts overnight and in the early morning hours. Winds generally variable and less than 15kts in the daylight hours, but trending west through northwest. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions will continue each afternoon. Look for west-southwest winds 10-20 mph on Monday, becoming west-northwest winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH values will mostly be between 10-20%, with overnight recoveries widely ranging from 35-75%. Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures are expected to climb 10+ degrees above normal, with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight chance for high-based showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, primarily for our eastern zones. Winds generally 10 mph or less and varying in direction forecast for Wednesday, becoming more southwest 5-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values generally between 5- 15% each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff