830
FXUS65 KFGZ 212302
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
402 PM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of
gusty southwest winds will continue through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now
heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake.
Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are
the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet,
several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring
now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze.
Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and
avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the
surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the
pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home.

A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in
southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface
past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each
day through this period. Along with the continued dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas.

Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over
the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are
increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed
into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With
the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index
levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe!

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 22/00Z through Thursday 23/00Z...VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, but
isolated periods of MVFR visibilities possible from HZ/FU. Look
for W-SW winds around 10 kts, gusting up to 25 kts through 03Z.
Light and variable winds should return overnight. Gusty SW winds
expected to return by 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/00Z through Saturday 25/00Z...Gusty
southwest winds are anticipated each afternoon, with light and
variable winds overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through
the outlook period, but areas of FU/HZ will be likely from
prescribed burns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry conditions with mild
temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Winds will increase on Thursday with a few spots
approaching critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH
values 8-18%.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-
40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter
winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected
each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff