Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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652 FXUS65 KFGZ 230457 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 957 PM MST Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place across northern Arizona through Saturday leading to near critical fire weather conditions across northeast Arizona. On Sunday, high pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend that is forecast to persist through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...Quiet night with winds starting to drop off this evening across the region. Smoke and haze are still around from prescribed burns and wildfires and will start to settle into low lying and drainage areas tonight. Forecast looks good and only minor edits were needed with the update this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /419 PM MST/...For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight, expect a continuation of clear skies and dry weather. Wind speeds will decrease after 2 pm MST, with low temperatures Thursday morning ranging from the low-30s to the low-50s at most places. From Thursday through Saturday, a zonal flow pattern will remain in place allowing a couple of dry low pressure systems to impact the area. No precipitation is expected, but breezy southwest winds and low afternoon humidity will combine to produce near critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday near the Little Colorado River Valley. At this point, Friday afternoon appears to have the greatest potential for critical fire weather, with a 30-50% chance of exceeding Red Flag conditions. On Sunday, high pressure will build over the area leading to a decrease in wind speeds and a warming trend. By the middle of next week, northern Arizona may see high temperatures between 5-10 degrees above average. && .AVIATION...Thursday 23/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...Winds continue to decrease this evening generally around 10 mph. A few localized areas are still seeing breezes near 20 mph, but that will subside overnight. VFR conditions will mostly prevail except for reduced visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds look to return after 16Z, with gusts near 25-30 kts. Calmer winds forecast tomorrow night. OUTLOOK...Friday 24/06Z through Sunday 26/06Z...Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the outlook period, with reduced visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds expected each afternoon, with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week. Southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph expected both afternoons. Minimum RH values will range between 8-20%. Saturday through Monday...A warming trend will take place into next week, with dry conditions remaining. West-southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph on Saturday, becoming light west winds Sunday and Monday. Minimum RH values will gradually decrease from 15-25% on Saturday to mostly single digits on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/RR AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff